The Fifth Elephant
The Fifth Elephant

The Fifth Elephant 2026 Winter Edition

Call for Data Problems and Proposals

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Anoop Asranna

What birds tell you about the shape of a lake

Submitted Oct 10, 2026

🎤 I am submitting: To speak I have a submission for: Showcase - a cool idea I have built/working on - 20 mins
  • Showcase - new ideas - 20 mins

If talk/session proposal, showcase, or poster

That lake in your neighborhood that you never bothered about? Chances are that it is now perfect for a (crowded ) morning run. The walking path is paved fresh, the birds are teeming at the exotic trees and flowers, and a metal fence keeps you away from the messy reeds at the lake edges. The cool breeze is in your face and that constant sight of water through the year, a reassuring distraction from the phone screen.

But what if Bangalore’s keres were never designed to stay full always? What if their drying margins were what attracted migratory birds from across the globe each winter? While a drying lakebed is an eyesore for us, it is an essential wetland habitat. But as the city changes, so do its lakes. Lakes are now where treated sewage water is released, turning them into permanently inundated water storing bowls. If that’s good or bad depends on who you ask. But 15,000 eBird checklists collected over 12 years across 14 major lakes tell you a story about their changing shorelines. A story of ecological gentrification, where edge habitat specialists are making way for open-water generalists. A story about how by losing the gentle slopes and messy edges, once thriving wetlands/keres are being transformed into giant urban tanks.

I have articles with visualizations and a basic functional dashboard. Will submit if selected

What don’t you know yet, or what do you want help with?
Can eBird data be an effective prxoy for ecological monitoring? There is no systematic ecological monitoring of restored lakes, the eBird checklists are the most useful biodiversity data there is. I would welcome critique on handling a crowdsourced proxy like this and its reliability.

What I have established is a statistically significant decline in shoreline and vegetated-edge waterbird guilds relative to open water birds, using a mixed- effects model across 14 lakes.

Bathymetric data is available for 3-4 lakes and satellite water data for all 14. For one lake, the shorebird declines can is consistent with the lake shape post restoration, but there is no bird data from before the restoration. I am yet to test the bird signals thoroughly against these datasets.

Optional: match making tags - choose any that apply:

  • I can help with: experience /facilitation
  • I need help with: critique
  • I’d like to meet: researchers / practitioners }

Topic/domain tags - Citizen Science, ecology, urban governance

Anoop Asranna, independent researcher working at the intersection of energy, environment and soceity.

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