The Coming Wave - Book Review

Introduction
As we traverse through an era of technological advancements, so transformative in nature, we need to take a pause. A pause to understand these emerging technologies, a pause to understand the tremendous magnitude of potential they hold for catastrophes, a pause to comprehend the extremely narrow path that mankind may have to walk upon to avoid them.

Book and Author Name
“The Coming Wave: A.I., Power and the Twenty-First Century’s Greatest Dilemma” by Mustafa Suleyman, Michael Bhaskar

Edition reviewed
Publisher: ‎ Bodley Head (1 January 2023)
Language: ‎ English
Paperback: ‎ 352 pages
ISBN-10: ‎ 1847927491
ISBN-13: ‎ 978-1847927491

Purchase Link
Amazon

Reviewed by Whom AND When?
Review by Sumit M. | Sep 2024

Abstract
The author introduces the audience to the incredibly fast, highly asymmetric, extremely general purpose and exceptionally autonomous technologies that hold the potential to transform the entire humanity and its way of life. The author further goes on to propose a few solutions that could help mitigate highly damaging outcomes.

The Review
The author explains the epoch-defining technologies that evolved through the ages and have impacted humanity. He briefs how the likes of “fire”, “writing”, “the wheel”, and “combustion engine” contributed to the progress of mankind. These were followed by nuclear energy, the internet, and EVs. The use of these technologies proliferated through the past few decades, and at some point, humans have evolved from Homo Sapiens to Homo Technologicus, wherein the use of technology became an integral component of our lives.

The author presents various case studies of how emerging technologies of AI, Advanced BioTechnology, and Quantum Computing will piggyback on each other’s capabilities to bring about radical societal changes. These changes while conjuring new industries and businesses into existence; will contribute to the shutting down of many others that we assume to be conventional today. The author presents a hypothesis that so easy to use and access these technologies will become, that mankind could soon be at the cusp of easy-to-realise, high-impact catastrophes.

The book is divided into four parts.

In the first part (“Homo Technologicus”), the author presents a case of how the waves of general-purpose technologies like “the fire”, “the wheel”, “the internal combustion engine”, etc. contributed to human evolution. The challenge with these technologies was scaling them. However, with emerging technologies like AI, synthetic biology, and quantum computing, the author argues that the challenge would be how we contain their power.

The second part (“The Next Wave”) begins with a revision of the history of AI, and the author’s personal journey through this domain of engineering. It presents a snapshot of humanity’s pursuit of achieving AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), and what we ended up creating as part of this journey. The author fondly details how the initial breakthroughs in AI were computer programs defeating humans at games like Breakout, and Go. The journey then moves to relatively recent developments in AI, namely LLMs (Large Language Models), LaMDA, and ChatGPT; and biotechnology which have transformed into a huge wave of transformative technologies. The author then argues the catastrophic outcomes of the irresponsible proliferation of these technologies on the entire human race. The author discusses four important factors of this “Coming Wave” technologies, and how these factors contribute to increasing the probability of a dystopia.

In the third part (“States of Failure”), the author highlights the adverse impact of uncontrolled, unethical, and unmonitored adoption of AI and other emerging technologies. The chapters detail how democratizing access to AI and its capabilities may prove detrimental to the political, medical, financial, and defence spheres of our society at large. The author lists how spreading misinformation at scale could topple governments of countries, and how irresponsible synthetic biology could bring about the next pandemic. On the other hand, he shows how technology has helped create modern empires and is rapidly putting the riches into the hands (of a few).

In the final part (“Through the Wave”), the author urges the audience to shake off pessimism aversion and explore ways to contain the problems that would come with the “Coming Wave” technologies and their adoption. The author proposes a 10-step Containment Plan to control “The Coming Wave”.

Key quotes
“Pessimism aversion is an emotional response, an ingrained gut refusal to accept the possibility of seriously destabilizing outcomes”

“Often people seem to think it’s still far off, so futuristic and absurd-sounding that it’s just the province or a few nerds and fringe thinkers, more hyperbole, more technobabble, more boosterism. That’s a mistake.”

“Containment is not, on the face of it, possible. And yet for all our sakes, containment must be possible”

“AI will become as ubiquitous as the internet itself: just as available, and yet even more consequential”

“Technology is ultimately political because technology is a form of power”

“Modern civilization writes checks only continual technological development can cash”

“The coming decades will see complex, painful trade-offs between prosperity, surveillance, and the threat of catastrophe growing ever more acute”

Key Takeaways

The chapter “Four Features of the Coming Wave” explains in detail how the “Coming Wave” technologies inherently possess the properties of Asymmetric Impact, Hyper-Evolution, Omni-Use, and Autonomy.

1. Asymmetry - Actions of a very limited set of individuals/groups will have the potential to create outcomes that a large part of our society might have to face. Eg: Wars, Financial Crisis, Infectious Disease Outbreaks
2. Hyper-evolution - The uncontrollable pace at which technology is evolving today makes the outcomes difficult to manage, understand, and adapt. AI combined with quantum computing is enabling technology to envision and create systems in real-time (digital pace).
3. Omni-use - AI is increasingly becoming “general purpose”, like electricity, that will permeate and power almost every aspect of daily lives.
4. Autonomy - Slowly but surely the “coming wave” technologies could be heading towards being fully autonomous, wherein human intervention becomes optional (to start with), and then further irrelevant
   Chapter Rating - 9/10

The hard-hitting possibility of democratization of the “Coming Wave” technologies in real-time, and the potential adverse impact it could have on our society if it is applied unethically by the actors involved, which is mentioned in the chapter “Fragility Amplifiers” is worthy of deep introspection. One read of this chapter is enough for any clear-headed individual to appreciate the value of policy-making, especially the “Ethics in AI” groups.
Chapter Rating - 9/10

The contrasting possibilities that the “Coming Wave” technologies or their absence could lead to a catastrophic and/or dystopian future is wonderfully captured in the chapter “The Dilemma”. One almost experiences cognitive dissonance while going through this chapter as the author details how these technologies are mandatory for our survival, while at the same can be the source of multiple crises (political, health, financial, psychological, etc.)
Chapter Rating - 9/10

The fact that someone has given deep thought to walking the narrow path of co-existing with the “Coming Wave” technologies and avoiding dystopia is commendable. The chapter “Ten Steps Toward Containment” comes up as a series of well-thought and well-reasoned steps for everyone to introspect. They are -

1. Safety - Built-in measures in the tools themselves
2. Audit Mechanisms - To secure transparency and accountability
3. Choke Points - To help buy time for the regulators
4. Responsible and Committed Makers
5. Right Incentives
6. Government Regulations
7. International Treaties and Alliances
8. Culture of shared learning (including failures)
9. Social movements that everyone can be part of
10. All of the above need to “COHERE”, i.e. work in harmony with each other

Chapter Rating - 8/10

Overall, the author systematically presents the audience with the “Coming Wave” technologies, lists ample examples of their present-day and futuristic capabilities, and then summarises the catastrophic outcomes if these technologies are applied unethically and irresponsibly.

Why you should read it
“The Coming Wave” is an intriguing read for readers who are curious about present-day technology and its all-pervading impact on humanity. It is a must-read for the technology practitioners who need to better understand all that they are creating and the consequences their creations behold, in the near future! 💡

Brief reviewer bio + link
Sumit M. is a co-founder at NonStop io Technologies, a Pune-based bespoke software engineering studio.